Big East rivals Pittsburgh and Louisville collide in Derby City for this week's edition of Thursday Night Football on ESPN. The Cardinals are priced as three-touchdown home-favorites and the posted total is a towering 66.5.
Pittsburgh comes in at 4-4 (SU) and 4-3 (ATS) on the season overall, but a perfect 0-3 (SU) and 1-2 (ATS) away from Heinz Field. The Panthers are on a marked up-tick in recent weeks though, having now won four of their past five contests after dropping their first three of the season.
The recent surge is a byproduct of Pitt's offense catching on to new coach Dave Wannstedt's west coast schemes. The Panthers, who had last weekend off, are averaging 34.5 points per game on offense their past five games compared to just 12.3 points per tilt in their first three games.
The Panthers hammered Syracuse 34-17 in their latest contest and are 15-5 (ATS) their past twenty off a double-digit conference win. Pitt's dangerous offense factored against the large pointspread is a fairly compelling idea. Mix in a struggling opponent and the Cats are potentially a dangerous "live dog" tonight.
Louisville was expected by most to win the watered down Big East this season, but has dropped two of its past three games overall and actually sits behind Pitt in the conference standings. The recent skid puts the Cardinals at 5-2 (SU) and 4-3 (ATS) for the season overall.
But before you go and risk the Pennsylvania Farm on the Panthers tonight, you may want to consider Louisville's home pedigree.
The Red Birds have snatched the green in all three of their tilts at Papa John's Stadium this season behind a dizzying 63.7 points per game. And no, that is not a misprint: The Cardinals offense has eclipsed 60 points in all three home games (63, 61 and 69) and is second in the nation behind only USC in scoring overall.
Dating back further, the Cardinals are an incredible 9-0 (SU & ATS) their past nine in Derby City overall despite being favored by double digits in every single one of these games!
Louisville is additionally 9-2 (ATS) its past eleven as a favorite of -20 or higher and 15-5 (ATS) in past twenty games on the board overall. Meanwhile, home favorites of -14 or more are a profitable 67-58 (ATS) in all college games this season.
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